Saturday, July 04, 2009

July 4, 1905

Fascinating front page of the Atlanta Constitution from July 4, 1905. Lead story was not Independence Day, and in fact I can't find a single reference to the holiday on the page; either it was not the practice at the time, or.... you know. It's good to see, however, that the mainstream media was once committed to round the clock battleship coverage.

Happy Independence Day! Soon I shall be drinking the Bloody Marys of Liberty...

Expatriate Patriotism

I'm breaking into this 24/7 coverage of the Palin meltdown (god bless her I say) to observe that today is Independence Day.  While I've been told that "It is impossible to be a true patriot and be a liberal at the same time", I actually do like my country a bit.  What's not to like?  We even let Canadians in to live amongst us on occasion.  We're that open-minded and warm-hearted.  I am hosting a traditional 4th BBQ here on the grounds of my stately English manor, fly the flag a bit, and after some beer and food, will grab my firearm and go hunt redcoats . . . 

Friday, July 03, 2009

What would we be without wishful thinking?

Glenn Beck is funny:
Seriously, what sort of "creative extremism" is Palin supposed to practice now that she's gone Galt on Alaska and thrown off the gubernatorial shackles? Will she ride a unicycle? Wander the land holding a giant puppet? I must confess that I don't understand why folks are straining to find some sort of credible motive or strategy in Palin's resignation, as if she actually still possessed a political future, much less a chance of running the country. Though we have a tradition in the US of electing Presidents who have lost previous campaigns for lower office, there's no precedent for advancing quitters to the White House.

Moreover, Palin's central argument -- that she's doing this for the good of her state -- is just bizarre; no one resigns from state office "for the good of the state" unless they're morally or legally compromised. The last people who genuinely believed their resignations were for "the good of the state" happened to be Confederates, resigning from federal office to preserve a racial caste system. Given Palin's bizarre political upbringing, I suppose that's not an inapt tradition from which to draw hope -- but though many ex-Confederates managed to get their jobs back, I don't think there's a chance that Sarah Palin can be reconstructed or redeemed.

The Saddest Thing I've Ever Read on the Internets

Erick Erickson's inner child hasn't just been wounded; it's been beaten and left for dead:

I’ve had this running thought all day, perhaps because I was watching it on TV in HD for the first time, that this is kind of like Ben Kenobi letting Darth Vader strike him down.
Via Thers.

She Made Me Look Ridiculous! And a Man in My Position Can't Afford to Look Ridiculous!

Kristol backed derivatives are crashing. His crowning achievement in Republican party politics was Sarah Palin. He's trying to make lemonade, but I don't think anyone is buying:

It's an enormous gamble - but it could be a shrewd one.

After all, she's freeing herself from the duties of the governorship. Now she can do her book, give speeches, travel the country and the world, campaign for others, meet people, get more educated on the issues - and without being criticized for neglecting her duties in Alaska. I suppose she'll take a hit for leaving the governorship early - but how much of one? She's probably accomplished most of what she was going to get done as governor, and is leaving a sympatico lieutenant governor in charge.

And haven't conservatives been lamenting the lack of a national leader? Well, now she'll try to be that. She may not succeed. Everything rests on her talents, and on her performance. She'll be under intense and hostile scrutiny, and she'll have to perform well.

All in all, it's going to be a high-wire act. The odds are against her pulling it off. But I wouldn't bet against it.

Continetti gamely tries to back up the Bossman:
Palin's statement made clear that, while she'll be leaving the governor's office, she is not leaving the national stage. Her book is scheduled for release sometime next year. She pledged to support candidates in the upcoming elections without regard to partisan affiliation. She took aim at the Obama administration's budget-busting spending policies. Palin's enemies have already taken today's news to suggest that her political career is over. It isn't. But Palin may also be thinking that her retirement from office will cause her critics to stop attacking her. She would be wrong to think so. Neither Palin nor the Palin-haters are going away.

As I've suggested before, Kristol occupies a central space in the network of right wing media/think tank types. Vast swaths of the Republican intelligentsia are deeply invested in his success, and he invested himself in the success of Sarah Palin. The Palin stocks have now crashed, and that may turn the investment in Kristol toxic. Kristol and his backers will, for a time anyway, deal with the problem by simply refusing to acknowledge that anything has gone wrong. When Jonah Goldberg is jumping ship, though, things aren't looking good.

No There There II

While we wait for Noon's on-the-scene reportage, I thought I'd mention that I agree with Steve's take on the Purdum article; it's either stuff you already know or not very damning. A representative example of what, when you strip the pejorative language/sexist double standards, is pretty weak tea as exposes go:

In dozens of conversations during a recent visit to Alaska, it was easy to learn that there has always been a counter-narrative about Palin, and indeed it has become the dominant one. It is the story of a political novice with an intuitive feel for the temper of her times, a woman who saw her opportunities and coolly seized them. In every job, she surrounded herself with an insular coterie of trusted friends, took disagreements personally, discarded people who were no longer useful, and swiftly dealt vengeance on enemies, real or perceived.
Or, in other words, she's...a politician. How many political figures of any consequence could most of this not be applied to? The same goes for the alleged dirt about her family; basically, I don't see anything she's done wrong that would be worth mentioning, which is rather more than you can say for, say, Saint McCain. The guilt-by-association we can recognize from Purdum's Clinton story and it's not really much more convincing, although at least it involves her family rather than her business associates.

Palin on "Endurance"

The now funniest line from Palin's ridiculous Runner's World interview:

I betcha I'd have more endurance. My one claim to fame in my own little internal running circle is a sub-four marathon. It wasn't necessarily a good running time, but it proves I have the endurance within me to at least gut it out and that is something. If you ever talk to my old coaches, they'd tell you, too. What I lacked in physical strength or skill I made up for in determination and endurance. So if it were a long race that required a lot of endurance, I'd win.
Of course you would.

LGM Alaska Correspondent Eating Cheese Fries or Something?!?

Apparently something incredibly entertaining is happening in Alaska. Where is Dave Noon??!?! WHERE IS DAVE NOON!!!!>!>11!!>>!>>>???

UPDATE (from davenoon): Jeebus! The Year of the Shit-Smearing-Crazy Governor continues. This is quite possibly the greatest birthday present I've received since -- well, some notably cool stuff happened when I turned 21, but . . . Wow. I can only assume that Palin figured that Mark Sanford and Michael Jackson had already taken the more enthralling paths to news-cycle dominance and that just absent-mindedly setting fire to her political career would have to do.

From the sounds of it, Palin implied that ethics complaints and negative national press coverage were interfering with her duties as governor. The opposite, in fact, is quite likely the better explanation -- her level of interest and engagement with Alaskan politics has been minimal, and her behavior over the past few months has been fitting for someone who views the job she has as a hindrance to the job she wants. She was a terrible, terrible governor after returning from the campaign trail. It's hard to overstate how badly she performed in Alaska this year. She lost fights with the legislature over stimulus funding, the state budget, and cabinet appointments, and she fought against the residents state capital by pushing a succession of unqualified goofballs into line for an interim job as Juneau's state senator. A lot of folks more knowledgeable about the situation than I assumed that she'd not run again next year, mainly because she'd be likely to face (and even possibly lose) a challenge in the GOP primary. It's safe to say that no one expected this, but really -- who's complaining?


Friday Cat Blogging... Nelson

Minimalism and the Roberts Court

Responding to Jack Balkin on the Court's "minimalist turn," Johnathan Adler argues:

It's an interesting post, but I reject Balkin's premise. There's nothing "sudden" about the Roberts Court's minimalism. Rather, a conservative minimalism has been the defining characteristic of the Roberts Court and, as a general matter, of the two newest justices. In this regard, NAMUNDO and Ricci, are of a piece with Wisconsin Right to Life, Ayotte, Gonzales v. Carhart, NRDC v. Winter, and many other cases in which the Court either adopted a very narrow, incremental holding or avoided reaching an underlying constitutional question.
I think, however, that the claim that nothing has changed is missing something important. I attempt to defend the distinction in detail in this paper for anyone who's interested, but I think it's crucial to distinguish between formal minimalism and substantive minimalism. I agree with Adler that Roberts and Alito have always been formal minimalists, declining to explicitly overrule precedents or make broad pronouncements. But prior to this term, this minimalism has often been strictly formal -- several of the cases Adler cites were not substantively minimalist. Carhart II, in which they declined to formally overrule Carhart I although they were upholding a statute virtually identical to the one the Court had previously struck down, is the most obvious (and farcical) example. As for Wisconsin Right to Life, I can't resist once again quoting from Scalia's footnote 7:

The claim that §203 on its face does not reach a substantial amount of speech protected under the principal opinion’s test—and that the test is therefore compatible with McConnell—seems to me indefensible. Indeed, the principal opinion’s attempt at distinguishing McConnell is unpersuasive enough, and the change in the law it works is substantial enough, that seven Justices of this Court, having widely divergent views concerning the constitutionality of the restrictions at issue, agree that the opinion effectively overrules McConnell without saying so. This faux judicial restraint is judicial obfuscation.
How the Court characterizes the relationship between a holding and its precedents is much less important than whether a holding actually is consistent with precedent. In many cases, Alito and Roberts' formal minimalism has concealed a substantive disregard for the relevant precedent. In this sense, the VRA case really was different. My guess, though, is that it's an outlier, an unusual case where a conservative substantive outcome and formal minimalism were essentially incompatible. In the future, I would expect the formal minimalism of Roberts and Alito to continue to mask a substantive conservatism that differs from Thomas and Scalia's primarily in that it's even more consistent.

More and Better Choice = More Voters! Go Figure!

An article of mine was just published days ago in the latest issue of Party Politics, which is one of the top Political Science journals in the UK.  This one, like a bunch of my stuff, concerns turnout.  I take a practical approach to turnout; where many argue that voting is the norm and non-voters are dysfunctional somehow, I argue the opposite.  The benefits one receives from voting are marginal, the probability of your single vote making the difference impossibly small, thus the costs outweigh the benefits, however marginal those costs are.  Of course, those costs increase at the margins for potential voters of lesser faculties, which in part explains the strong association between education and turnout.


I look at a number of countries, 28 I think (I know, I know . . . I wrote it, I should know), comparing the richness of the electoral market.  Like how stores with greater selection will have more customers, electoral markets with greater selection will have more voters.  Bonus if the better store also has cheaper prices.  In electoral politics, cheaper prices can be arranged through simple things, like having election day on a weekend, extended polling hours (or at least shorter lines!), etc.  It's also possible to have cheaper prices through something as mundane as accurate partisan cues, which is one reason why judicial elections in my home state of Washington often feature serious drop off on the ballot.  

So in this thing, I argue that electoral 'stores' that feature a greater range of choice, and choices closer to the voters' own views, while controlling for the usual range of individual (such as SES, education or interest) and institutional (electoral system, compulsory voting, age of the democracy, etc.) explanations, are associated with higher levels of turnout.   [Thanks to commenter Matt for pointing out the poor writing in the original.]  The data support both propositions.  In fact, it turns out that electoral context as measured through overall ideological coverage (e.g. more choice) and ideological proximity (e.g. better choice) are stronger, more substantive explanations than the usual suspects (e.g. age, education, or even electoral system).

This all sounds like a no brainer, but this is the first paper to make and empirically test these arguments.  I've included a link to the paper above, but with the increasing commercialization of academic presses, this journal is now published by Sage, hence my distribution rights are severely restricted (I am technically not allowed to post the paper on a "web site" among other things).  If you happen to be at an institution that has a subscription to Party Politics, you have access; otherwise, if you're interested send me a private email and I'll send you the pdf.  The paper itself relies on some fairly sophisticated statistical modeling, but not too high tech (just four OLS erm, Logistic regression models and two HLM 2-level models), and there's a fairly low-tech figure that illustrates some of the stuff in handy black and white.

The argument I really want to make is one that I do make in a class I teach on the effects of globalization on domestic politics: that the range of choice, and quality of choice, in electoral politics has narrowed over time, and this explains the general decline of turnout that established democracies have been experiencing since the end of WWII.  While I have no idea how I could empirically pin this narrowing of ideological choice on globalization, I also do not have sufficient time series data for the 28 or however many countries I use in this paper.  What I'll end up doing, in the book version, is using three or four or five countries where I can find sufficient time points as well as the right measures in the surveys . . . 

Andy v Andy

Gentlemen's Singles Semi-Final, The Championships, Wimbledon.  


Today, at some point.  (If you care, you already know.  I really don't.)

This is a big deal here in the UK as one might imagine, and it's always a bigger deal when there is a Brit involved in some meaningful way.  Tim Henman used to be the token Brit.  Being English, it was fate that he would lose in the Wimbledon semi-finals.  A lot.  Andy Murray looks to be a superior player; whereas Henman never played in a grand slam final, Murray already has, losing to Roger Federer in the 2008 U.S. Open.

Safe money is on a Federer-Murray Wimbledon final this weekend.  Safe money was wrong.  (Which, given my track record on predicting the outcome of sporting events on LGM is certain to doom at least one of the two to defeat in the semis.)  As I've heard repeatedly over the past week or eight, a Murray appearance would be the first time in 471 years that a British player has appeared in the Gentlemen's Singles final.  And frankly, I don't really care.  I played the game, even on my high school team, but I was mediocre when at my best, and have no doubt declined since.  What interests me about Henman-mania, erm, Murray-mania is how accepted Murray tends to be south of the border.  This is just a theory of mine that is not supported by any evidence, systematic or anecdotal, but my suspicion is that the English are more accepting of Scots than vice-versa.  

Murray is rightfully proud of being Scottish, to the point where he opined in 2006 that he would be supporting Paraguay against England in the opening match of the 2006 World Cup group stage, indeed going so far as to claim to support anybody but England (even Germany, I wonder?  Argentina?)  Rooting against the England football team in a major tournament (when they qualify) is not exactly going out on a limb, but it should also be pointed out that the last time Scotland so much as qualified was France 1998; in neither the World Cup nor the European Championships have Scotland progressed past the first round.  I suspect the English are aware of this record.

Back to my central point: are the English more accepting of Scottish (or Welsh, or Irish, or whatever) sporting success than vice-versa?  While I suspect this to be true, one of my (English) students has the following as her facebook status: "woo come on Murray only time it's OK to support a Scot" . . . 

Being the jingoistic, narrow minded, nationalistic, reactionary sort that I am, will be pulling for Roddick in this match, assuming I manage to pay any attention.  If my prediction curse dooms Murray, and all of Great Britain, to semi-final gloom, at least I'm getting on a plane in a little over a week to spend a couple months in the United States, mixing research with pleasure, and if Murray manages to lose today, enhancing my prospects for a long(er) life.

UPDATE: oh shit.  prediction curse continues.  I'm likely a marked man.

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Contrarianism I Can Get Behind

Now, if we can only get someone to take on parades:

Meanwhile, the professional fireworks display is an exercise in pomposity, aggression, triumphalism, and hubris.
And boring. Don't forget boring. If you're at a decent July 4th party, whatever you were doing is more fun than the fireworks.

And, Yet, Yar's Revenge Languishes

I'm guessing that this will not end watchably.

Etzioni: Whither the Decent Left?

Amitai Etzioni:

North Korean ships are carrying missiles and materials from which chemical and nuclear weapons can be made -- to other tyrannies, such as the oppressive regimes in Myanmar and in Yemen. The United States leads a group of more than ninety nations that are committed to stopping such traffic, but North Korea has stated that such interventions would lead to war. One hears extremely little from progressives about what the United States should do next...

Yet, we hear next to no sounds of approval from the progressive camp; one is hard put to find editorials from the left stating that this time we've got it right. Are progressives holding that all problems can be treated with merely goodwill, foreign aid, and talk? Or are they willing to fess up and acknowledge that when all other means have been exhausted, and there is clear and present danger--the time to act is now, and to act may entail putting at least one foot down?

A few points:
  1. No one knows what North Korean ships are carrying. It is true that, in the past, North Korea has engaged in the proliferation of missile and nuclear technology. There are good reasons to suspect that it will do so in the future. The exact nature of the cargo carried by the Kang Nam, however, is wholly unknown. Indeed, North Korea has a history of setting public relations traps for the unsuspecting.
  2. Someone did, in several outlets associated with "progressive" foreign policy, publish discussions of the sanctions against North Korea. Other progressives have also written about North Korea. I have no idea whether Jeffrey Lewis and the guys at ArmsControlWonk consider themselves progressive or not, but he's given some of the most detailed discussion of North Korea's nuclear program to appear anywhere, and his prescriptions are broadly in line with a variety of "progressive" foreign policies. The Center for American Progress has also weighed in on North Korea.
  3. The Iraq War was a stupid conflict conducted in a stupid manner, and it consequently produced a tremendous amount of domestic opposition. Much, but not all, of this opposition came from what can be understood as "progressives". The unity of opposition to the Iraq War, however, obscured a series of very real differences within the coalition. Progressives differ on the exact manner and timing of withdrawal from Iraq, on the wisdom of the war in Afghanistan, on the most reasonable approach to Iran, on the future structure of the US armed forces, on the nature and desirability of US hegemony, on the character of US relations with Africa and Latin America, on the utility of nuclear weapons, on the importance of "free trade," and on the relevance of international institutions and international law. While each progressive has his or her own understanding of the relationship between progressive principles and foreign policy, it's simply not the case that a singular "progressive foreign policy" can be teased out. Rather, there are many different potential foreign policies that can fall under the label "progressive," just as there are some that can safely be excluded from that umbrella. Anyone who tries to tell you that "progressives think X" on foreign policy is engaging in a rhetorical trick; those progressives who disagree with the policy are by definition excluded from the debate.
  4. Given this multiplicity of potential progressive foreign policies, conflict and disagreement between progressives (to say nothing of the anti-Iraq War coalition as a whole) is inevitable. The "decent lefting" that Etzioni is engaging in is probably the least productive manner in which to conduct this conversation. The point is to pre-emptively denounce rather than seek any debate, and given the uncertainty associated with North Korea the bluster is particularly misplaced. Indeed, Etzioni can't even identify any progressives who disagree with him; rather, he's incensed by their purported silence, and implies that they must hold some odd set of radical anti-American/anti-imperialist views. It's true enough that there are still some on the left who will denounce a writer as a "neocon" if he advocates supporting a left-wing Latin American President against a military coup d'etat, but these people are few in number, have no meaningful political power, and have little access to mainstream media outlets. It's also true that the "Where were the WMDs!?" line may eventual gain the same stature as the Munich Analogy, an argument constantly deployed in an effort to understand disparate and dissimilar situations. I'm willing to give it a bit more time, however. In any case, Etzioni leaves the impression not simply that those who disagree with him are wrong, but that those who agree with him at insufficient volume are feckless. I am forcibly reminded of the situation following the South Ossetia War, where progressives who were insufficiently enthusiastic about brave little Georgia, and who were interested in such trivial questions as "who started the war?" were denounced as the indecent left. The same, of course, applies to the run up to the Iraq War, when an entire family of arguments was deemed inappropriate for serious discussion.
All that said, I agree with Etzioni; PSI is a good idea, a tighter set of sanctions against North Korea is sensible and legitimate, and progressive foreign policy goals are well served by such an approach. The arguments go down better, however, without the chip on the shoulder.

Meanwhile, Nixon sucks a dry martini

It's nice to see so many wingnuts lifting Helen Thomas -- the recipient of so much of their loathing over the years -- and bearing her aloft on their shoulders after she claimed that the Obama administration is more obsessed with media control than Richard Nixon.

Beyond the fact that she seemed most exercised over the Nico Pitney non-story, the merits of Thomas' argument are of course laughably thin. Call me, for example, when the Obama White House employs people to forge press releases on stolen GOP letterhead, or when it orders wiretaps placed on prominent reporters who disclose the details of illegal invasions, or when it tries to institute prior-restraint over the press as a whole, or when White House aides openly discuss poisoning a nettlesome journalist.

But the manufactured outrage from conservative bloggers is especially ludicrous, given the previous administration's own preference for simulated spontaneity, arguably the worst example of which was the infamous scripted press conference just prior to the Iraq War. More to the point, if these folks hadn't spent years cheering Bush's press psy-ops, advocating the imprisonment (or worse) of journalists who belatedly reported on the administration's criminal fuckups, wailing tediously when imprisoned photographers were released after years of being held without charges, or regularly accusing press organizations like the AP of functioning as terrorist front groups, I'd be more inclined to take them seriously when they complain about a health care town hall whose choreography was typical of the genre.

I Admit It

No matter how many clever and complex rationalizations I hear to justify the extensive coverage, I still don't understand why I should care at all about Mark Sanford's sex life, and I still don't understand how stuff like his private emails to someone who shouldn't be called his "mistress" can be considered political news. (And, yes, yes, I understand the meta-tautology that whether or not it should matter it does so it was irresponsible for, say, John Edwards to conceal an affair while running for president. But it still doesn't answer the crucial first question.)

The Obvious About Alito

Adam Liptak has done an excellent job as the Times' Supreme Court reporter, and while address some other aspects of his term-end roundup in a subsequent post I was especially gratified to see him note what few mainstream commentators are willing to about reasonable, moderate, thinking-man's conservative Sam Alito:

The two newest justices, Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., both appointed by President George W. Bush, agreed 92 percent of time, the highest rate for any pair of justices. But Justice Alito often wrote concurring opinions to underscore or try to extend conservative rulings, especially in criminal cases. He may well now be the court’s most conservative member.

“Alito is staking out some room to the right of the chief justice,” said Pamela Harris, the executive director of the Supreme Court Institute at Georgetown University Law Center, “and you would have thought there is no such room.”

[...]

If there were surprises, they came from Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.

“For all the talk about Scalia and Thomas being the most conservative justices on the court, they are the justices most likely in play,” said Jeffrey L. Fisher, a law professor at Stanford who has argued several important criminal cases before the court.

Obviously, as Liptak notes elsewhere, defining justices on an ideological spectrum can be tricky. The way I'd put it is that Alito is easily the most meaningfully reactionary justice on the current Court, and hence since James McReynolds. Thomas might be even more willing to stake out radical positions in solo dissents and concurrences, but given their lack of influence this doesn't matter a lot. On the other hand, in some civil liberties and business cases Thomas and Scalia are in some cases willing to cast decisive votes in with the Court's more liberal justices. Not in a million years would Alito cast the swing vote to uphold a confrontation clause claim, let alone write or join an opinion caustically noting the many logical flaws in the dissent's argument in favor for ignoring the straightforward command of the Sixth Amendment if it might cause the state to spend money. It's true that Scalia and Thomas's commitment to civil libertarian positions is highly sporadic, but better "sporadic" than "non-existent if their vote means anything."

And all of this was perfectly obvious at the time of Alito's nomination. Claims that Alito was some kind of moderate were ludicrous at the time and have proven to be erroneous.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Oh, And His Attempts At Humor Make Jar-Jar Binks Look Like A Great Idea Well-Executed

Indeed.

Goodbye, Shooter





R.I.P.

Democracy is a Process

It is a feature of modern American life that those who screech loudest for FREEDOM!!1!!1 have the greatest contempt for the practice of democracy.

In spite of their longstanding neoconservative and general baby-killing tendencies, Loomis and Trend are keeping abreast of the situation in Honduras. See also MSS and, of course, Randy Paul.

Disparate Treatment and Equal Protection

Scalia's concurrence in Ricci elaborated an alleged conflict between equal protection and the disparate treatment of the Civil Rights Act. I won't call this a false conflict, exactly -- as with many legal and constitutional values, there is potential tension in marginal cases. But I think Ginsburg's response gets it right:


Neither Congress’ enactments nor this Court’s Title VII precedents (including the now-discredited decision in Wards Cove) offer even a hint of “conflict” between an employer’s obligations under the statute’s disparate-treatment and disparate-impact provisions. Cf. ante, at 20. Standing on an equal footing, these twin pillars of Title VII advance the same objectives: ending workplace discrimination and promoting genuinely equal opportunity.

Yet the Court today sets at odds the statute’s core directives.
I'll leave a discussion about how the Court's conservatives have used different standards of evidence to prove discriminatory intent for another post. But, in general, not only is paying attention to disparate impact consistent with enforcing civil rights and the equal protection of the law, it's necessary. To use the old analogy, it's silly to pretend (as the ahistorical formalism practiced by the Court's conservatives* demands) that a woman kept in chains and fed bread and water and a woman given a professional training regimen are in an equal position because they both start at the same line. The effects of history don't vanish when the law changes. Legacy admissions in formerly racist colleges, for example, perpetuate white supremacy whether they are intentionally discriminatory or not, because they provide a benefit to some whites that are not available to black people. This isn't to suggest that dealing with a history of discrimination is easy, of course, but there's a reason why virtually nobody who supported civil rights contemporaneously thinks that John Roberts' empty homilies are an adequate response.

*Of course, this applies only to assessing discrimination against African-Americans. When you're asserting discrimination against an Italian-American firefighter, any lurid, implausible, race-bating conspiracy theory is plenty good enough.

How Not to Organize a Country

One of the many things I find utterly fascinating about my adopted land is its unwritten constitution. Writing on the strength of an unwritten constitution, a book review in the recent Economist states it well enough:

The constitution was not a set of fundamental and broadly unalterable rules but simply “what happened”. The fact that government’s workings could easily and unobtrusively be changed was accounted a virtue: Britain escaped the ancestor worship that fixed canons like America’s imposed. Its elusive constitution seemed to ensure both stability and freedom. It was envied abroad and taken for granted at home.
Its strength of flexibility and malleability is at once its primary weakness: while it does an admirable job of adapting in most respects, on occasion the lack of clear and precise principles beyond the sovereignty of Parliament (and technically the Monarch) can lead to a ludicrously botched state of affairs. The piece in The Economist is rather quiet on the weaknesses inherent to the British constitution save for an observation attributed to the Queen herself: "The British Constitution has always been puzzling and always will be." It is perhaps at its most puzzling when it comes to devolution of some powers to some regions.

I won't get into the history much, but England sort of ended up dominating this island I live on, and tried to dominate the island to the west as well (while they mostly failed in that project ultimately, there are some residual manifestations). Possibly as a result, some people who live in the non-English bits of these islands view the English with some reservation bording on disdain. Indeed, it strikes me as provincial that supporters of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland aren't merely unconcerned if England win or lose, they actively root, support, plot, and facilitate England's demise. Now I'll admit to generally not supporting UCLA, USC, or, god forbid, the Oregon freaking Ducks in their daily endeavours, yet when these teams reach the Rose Bowl at the expense of the University of Washington (a fairly safe bet these days unfortunately) I instinctively root for the Pac-10 against the heathens from the Midwest. Not so on these islands.

The constituent nations, even, yes, Cornwall, have also over the years appealed for a degree of, if not absolute, political autonomy. In a measured implementation, this I can appreciate and support (i.e. short of outright independence). However, in the tradition of the unwritten constitution lacking any set of guiding principles beyond what the Government of the day deems politically astute, the Labour implementation of devolution to Scotland and Wales was predictably botched.

The first attempt at devolution to Scotland and Wales was held in 1979. Both failed in referenda, convincingly in Wales and technically in Scotland. The version of devolution we have with us passed overwhelmingly in Scotland, barely in Wales, in 1997, possibly one of the few referenda that Labour have promised in their various election manifestos that they have carried through on. The resulting Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly are close to powerless when contrasted with an American state, or even city in many cases. Scotland can vary the basic tax rate by up to three pence on the pound, which at least affords that body some democratic leeway (but, critically, not business tax, nor does the Scottish Parliament have any say over what remains of North Sea oil). Wales has neither the oil nor the taxation power. However, both Scotland and Wales do have a large say over how certain aspects of the budget allocated to them from Westminster, and it is here where some of the most striking anomalies arise.

The key fault with the current implementation of devolution is its asymmetry vis-a-vis the central government. Scotland has more power than Wales, they both have more and less than Northern Ireland, and everybody has more than any region in England. Tam Dalyell pointed out this anomaly back in 1977 with the so-called "West Lothian Question". I assume that anybody who has read this far knows what it is, but in a nutshell, Scottish and Welsh MPs can vote on issues that affect England (and English voters), while English MPs are not eligible to vote on issues devolved to the Welsh Assembly or Scottish Parliament.

The West Lothian Question is best illustrated, at least in my current setting in my office in the Politics & International Relations department at an English university, by variance in university fees. Universities in the UK are funded, and ultimately administered (albeit very loosely) by the state. The Higher Education Act of 2004 basically tripled the tuition fee that students are responsible for paying, but not in Scotland, where higher education is a devolved power. It barely passed, by only five votes if I recall correctly. While there were obviously a large number of Labour rebels voting against the Blair Government, the overwhelming Labour majority in Scotland was critical in getting the Act passed. Remove these Scottish MPs from the equation, it fails. I often wonder how such an arrangement is consistent with basic democratic norms (and you can bet that I invite my students to consider this as they pay their fees).

Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish National Party, has been getting a fairly easy ride through his term of office, due in large part to Scotland historically receiving a higher than average per capita spending from Westminster, now in effect a grant given to the Scottish Parliament to spend (on those policy areas not reserved to Westminster). No Scottish Government, Labour or SNP, have had to take advantage of the basic taxation rate. This may change, which is a good thing.

This is not meant to be a rant against the British "Constitution" per se, and as Walter Bagehot wrote in his brilliant Victorian treatise The English Constitution, the American system is also far from perfect. Indeed, this paragraph made me chuckle this morning:
A hostile legislature and a hostile executive were so tied together, that the legislature tried, and tried in vain, to rid itself of the executive by accusing it of illegal practices. The legislature was so afraid of the President's legal power, that it unfairly accused him of acting beyond the law. And the blame thus cast on the American Constitution is so much praise to be given to the American political character. Few nations, perhaps scarcely any nation, could have borne such a trial so easily and so perfectly. This was perhaps the most striking instance of disunion between the President and the Congress that has ever yet occurred, and which probably will ever occur.
Bagehot was writing about the impeachment of one Mr. Johnson. I also do not mean to suggest that there aren't similar anomolies in the U.S. (see the District of Columbia for a hilarious example) or that Scotland, Wales, or even Cornwall deserve some degree of autonomy.

All I ask is that it be done right, and this clearly isn't.

Not to pick nits, but it's not really an island, either, is it?

I'm slightly embarrassed to admit I didn't know Rhode Island's full name, so while I would support efforts by states to make their names longer and goofier, I guess don't especially care if the Ocean State decides to change it based on flimsy historical interpretations of the term "plantation." The broad argument made by the bill's sponsors and advocates are reasonable enough; apparently, it's possible to get an education in Rhode Island and not learn much about the significant role it played in the colonial slave trade. I doubt that altering the state's official letterhead will do much to correct the problem, but Rhode Islanders -- unlike the supporters of the Honduran coup -- don't seem to be especially threatened by the notion of a public referendum, so more power to them.

It would certainly be nice if the debate in Rhode Island were to spur similar reflections in certain other states -- say, those of the defeated Confederacy -- where the public landscape is littered with memorials to actual slaveholders and their political and military defenders, all of which would serve a more useful purpose if they were hauled away by crackheads meth addicts and sold as scrap metal. I suppose I shouldn't hold my breath on that one.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Ricci and Sotomayor

Attempts to use Ricci to derail Sotomayor's nomination won't work, but (as Paul also said earlier today) they do show how silly the whole "empathy" criticism is.

Senator Al

Finally. And, while perhaps this overstates his rationality, now that Coleman has conceded it's hard to imagine Pawlenty making the courts issue a writ to force him to act.

Getting Out

Ackerman:

It's a "carnival" in Baghdad, according to the Post's Ernesto Londono, filled with Iraqi troops grinning as they take their lives into their own hands and graffitti writers further south demanding, "Pull your troops from our Basra, we are its sons and want its sovereignty." Don't tell them tomorrow is just another day. These are the people in whose name the U.S. justified six years of a blunder. Like any rational people enduring a foreign military occupation, they light candles and wave banners and sing patriotic songs when the occupier pulls away.

Occupier -- what a nauseating word to hear; what an enfeebling thing to be; what a distorting condition to bear. Remember when Zell Miller told us that nothing made that Marine madder than to hear U.S. troops described as occupiers and not liberators? His complaint should have been registered with the man who made them into such a thing, not with those who wouldn't speak euphemistically or patronizingly about it. What U.S. troops have endured they have endured heroically, in a manner that those who haven't served can't comprehend. I consider it more heroic that they've done it in spite of the war's maculate conception.

Spencer puts his finger on something that I've never quite understood about Tom Ricks' "unraveling" series; elite and popular Iraqi opinion (with the partial exception of Kurdistan) is united around the idea of the United States leaving. Whether or not the precarious peace created in part by the Surge holds is pretty much irrelevant to that point. The Iraqi preference for an American withdrawal has held steady pretty much from the day the Americans arrived (public opinion in Afghanistan has always been different, although the gap is closing). Any talk of staying on to "finish the job" or "hold things together" is just so much nonsense in the face of this strong, consistent Iraqi preference. Iraq may unravel, and it will in some important sense have been our responsibility, but by the Iraqis' own account it's not our job to prevent that from happening.

See also Stephen Walt.

Have you ever looked at the lyrics of Rush songs really closely?

That was the question a young man who stopped by my office a few months ago had for me. He had read something I'd written, and was so impressed by my powers of perception regarding what's really going on that he felt he could share with me certain recondite truths, including but not limited to

(1) The rock band Rush controls most of the world's economy. The members of the band hold controlling voting shares of stock in Microsoft, Oracle, Sun, Intel, and several other of the world's largest corporations.

(2) They use their power of international commerce in the service of Satan.

(3) They used their powers a few days earlier to have him arrested by local law enforcement.

(4) All this and much more is practically self-evident to anyone who makes a close examination of the lyrics of their albums. It's all right there if you're just willing to look.

It was an interesting conversation, but one thing I didn't do was argue with the guy about potential flaws in his theory.

I was reminded of that conversation by this Thomas Sowell column, replete as it is with barking paranoia of the most unhinged sort. I don't want to argue with Sowell either. I mean what would be the point? He's a crazy person.

(h/t Yglesias)

Ricci, Sotomayor, Scalia & Empathy

The new hit album.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Giving Away The Show

I'll have more tomorrow, but like Publius I was amazed to come home and read Alito's remarkable-and-not-in-a-good-way concurrence focusing on the Scary Black Guy who allegedly caused New Haven to jettison its testing process for promotions. As Adam also points out, Ginsburg was devastating in noting that Alito's stories were strikingly unencumbered by any evidence that Kimber actually had any influence at all on the politically insulated commission that reached the decision, let alone more influence than the other interests that strongly supported the lawsuit. Indeed, not only is there no evidence, there isn't even a plausible chain of causation; it's just wingnut innuendo all the way down.

At any rate, I'm sure Alito's excessively candid sharing of beside-the-point race-baiting Republican talking points should provide some comic relief when Republican Senators claim that Sotomayor is insufficiently impartial, what with her "empathy" and all.

Question the timing

Erik Loomis happened to be in Honduras the other day, just as Kermit Roosevelt happened to be in Iran during the summer of 1953.

Israel Ditches the LCS

It appears that the Israelis have ditched plans to purchase the Littoral Combat Ship:

In a radical revamp of its surface fleet modernization program, the Israel Navy has shelved long-held plans to purchase Lockheed Martin-produced Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), as well as a fallback option involving corvetees built by Northrop Grumman.

Instead, sources say, the Navy is pushing to establish a combat shipbuilding industry through customized, locally built versions of a German corvette design.

The German option is a longer, larger version of the A-100 corvette. This is interesting, because there are multiple potential Israeli motivations.

The central tasks of the Israeli Navy are to prevent infiltration into Israel, prevent smuggling into Gaza, and support IDF land operations in Lebanon and Gaza. There's good reason to think that the LCS would do all three of these jobs better than the A-100. As Galrahn has pointed out repeatedly, the LCS is best understood as a mothership for small boats and UAVs, and not as a surface combatant. These capabilities give it the capability to monitor and act in a substantial portion of Israel's sea space, and also to contribute to operations on land. The LCS was originally envisioned as the Navy's contribution to network-centric warfare, extending surveillance and fire capability across the littoral (which includes both the sea and the coast). This fits in well with the IDF's vision of how war ought to be fought. The LCS was also conceived in response to the threat presented by swarms of small, fast boats, which is exactly the problem that Hezbollah and Hamas might pose in the maritime sphere. The LCS is also some 16 knots faster than the A-100, giving it the ability to respond more quickly to problems, and to evacuate itself more quickly from dangerous situations. Although it's unclear that the Israelis would have much use for the LCS' modular nature, it's fair to say that the LCS is a *much* more capable platform than even a modified A-100.

That said, there are good reasons why the Israelis would prefer the A-100. First, the technology is much more mature, and the design is operationally tested. The first littoral combat ships remain in trials, and won't be used operationally for some time. They might not achieve full operational capacity for quite a while. Second, the cost of the LCS is much higher than the A-100. To this day, no one quite knows how much a fully operational LCS will cost. For a state more focused on its land frontiers than its littoral, the less expensive corvette makes some sense. Third, the LCS isn't necessarily a street fighter. No modern warships can be expected to have a lot of staying power, but the LCS is particularly vulnerable because of its light construction. The LCS also costs more per unit, which means that more Israeli treasure is bound up in a specific ship. This matters, because people occasionally fire surface-to-surface missiles at Israeli ships, and also sometimes blow up small boats next to Israeli vessels. Finally, it appears that the modified A-100s will be built in Israel, and job-creating defense projects are always popular with politicians.

The wild card is this; while the Israeli decision to quit the LCS can be explained purely through military and economic factors, you have to wonder whether there's also a political motivation. Given recent assertions about Israel's capacity to "go it alone," and mildly increasing tensions between the Obama and Netanyahu over settlements, it's possible to read this as a message to US defense contractors (and perhaps more importantly, to US congress-critters) that Israel can say no, and that there are potential economic consequences for playing hardball. Now, just because an action can be read as a message doesn't mean that a message is being sent, and I may well be over-interpreting the Israeli decision on this point.

See also Galrahn.

*Blech* Twitter

We now have *shudder* a Twitter feed. Adjust your behavior accordingly. We expect that the feed will include not only self-serving links to LGM posts, but also unique examples of the quality socio-political commentary you've come to expect from LGM, distilled down to 140 characters.

On Old Soldiers Refusing to Fade Away

I've had Vo Nguyen Giap on my death list for four years running. This year in History of Strategic Thought, we read People's War People's Army; while the first half is pretty much standard Marxist agitprop, his account of the siege and reduction of Dien Bien Phu is a beautiful thing to behold. A couple of the students were astounded to hear that the old man is still alive. It turns out that not only is he still breathing, but he's still kicking:

Vietnam’s great war hero, Gen. Vo Nguyen Giap, has stood up to defend his country once again, this time against what he says would be a huge mistake by the government — a vast mining operation run by a Chinese company.

Now 97, the commander who led his country to victory over both France and the United States has emerged as the most prominent voice in a broad popular protest that is challenging the secretive workings of the country’s Communist leaders.

In an unusual step, the government has taken note of the criticisms in recent weeks and appears to be making at least gestures of response, saying it will review the project’s environmental impact and slow its full implementation...

... The government might well have brushed off its critics if General Giap had not spoken up, first in January and twice afterward, saying the project “will cause serious consequences to the environment, society and national defense.”

The old campaigner now appeared to be rallying public opinion against the country’s leadership, calling on scientists, managers and social activists to “suggest to the party and the state to have a sound policy on the bauxite projects in the Central Highlands.”

Pre-Emptive Ricci Post

I will be in a car returning from a graduation party most of the day. So if, as expected, the Court hands down its decision in Ricci today and reverses the Second Circuit, let me say that this in no way shows that Sotomayor was "wrong" on the law. First, because the Supreme Court can create new law in way that Circuit Courts can't. And, second, because cases interesting enough to make it to the Supreme Court generally admit to multiple reasonable interpretations, and New Haven's belief that civil rights law did not allow it to use a test that would disproportionately promote white people unless it could show a much stronger relationship between the test and job performance was certainly plausible, and a legal position that obtains 3 or 4 Supreme Court votes in particular cannot usefully be said to be "wrong."

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Giving Morons the Beating They Deserve

Brought to you by SEK.

European political leader who believed in Iraqi WMD has sophisticated foreign policy opinions about Iran, too

Um, no one cares what Jose Maria Aznar thinks, but this is an especially useless effort. The comparisons between Iran and the Soviet Union are delivered with the stupidity that's customary for the genre; it's hard, for example, to know where to begin his claim that Western support for Soviet dissidents (a) made Soviet leaders fearful of treating them badly, and (b) eventually brought town the government itself. Whatever force "the Free World" was able to exert upon Soviet human rights was a direct result of the fact that the US and the Soviet Union had, from 1963 through the mid-1970s, established a reasonably successful record of negotiating on a variety of issues of mutual interest (e.g, nuclear testing and arms limitations, grain shipments, etc.) So far as dissidents were concerned, their treatment during this period was mild by the obviously unpleasant by historical standards -- not because the government feared Johnson, Nixon or Ford (who were, it's worth pointing out, not hollering conspicuously about Soviet dissidents) but because Soviet leadership saw little to be gained domestically from "ruthlessly [doing] away with them," as Aznar insists they would have. After Khrushchev's disclosures, a full revival of Stalinist brutality was probably an impossibility; whatever ill needs to be spoken of the post-Stalin era, it's insane to claim their behavior was held in check simply out of fear of external punishment. The state viewed dissidents as enemies of the regime and suppressed them as best they could, but by the late 1970s and 1980s -- when Aznar presumably believes US support for dissidents was most consequential -- the Soviet leadership hardly required the aid of dissenters (or critiques by American leaders) to bring discredit to its own project.

That said, it's hard to imagine what sort of guidance Aznar thinks his flawed history might provide for the Obama administration. This is of course a problem for anyone who's been insisting that Obama Must Do SomethingTM, but Aznar captures the vagueness of the argument with impressive brevity:

This is no time for hesitation on the part of the West. If, as part of an attempt to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, the leaders of democratic nations turn their backs on the dissidents they will be making a terrible mistake.

President Obama has said he refuses to "meddle" in Iran's internal affairs, but this is a poor excuse for passivity. If the international community is not able to stop, or at least set limits on, the repressive violence of the Islamic regime, the protesters will end up as so many have in the past -- in exile, in prison, or in the cemetery. And with them, all hope for change will be gone.
See, I'd been under the mistaken impression that the US would be hard-pressed to find a constructive role to play with respect to the Iranian crisis. But I forgot that by simply not hesitating* and by facing the protesters squarely in solidarity**, we could actually set limits*** on the behavior of the Iranian state!



* Whatever the hell that means.
** Ibid.
*** Ibid.

Oddly Enough, We Play Better With 11 Men on the Pitch

USA v Brazil. 19:30 (BST), BBC 3. 14:30 (EDT), 11:30 (PDT).  And other times.  Google, kids, don't miss this one.

Ignore the Italy and the Brazil match. Well, perhaps Brazil is relevant, but when you play a man down, as we seem to prefer doing, you sort of stack the deck against you. This side came into its own in the Egypt and the Spain matches. And it's been a transition for a few years. 2002 was a long time ago, and we have been coasting since. 2006 was a disaster. Arena lost the plot. But it's a transformed side now, and I think it's come into its own. We still miss some cutting edge in the final third (or, as Arsenal fans might recall, the 'fox in the box') but I like the midfield, and really, really like the back four. DeMerit has impressed -- no, that's selling him short. He has got himself a ticket out of Watford.

We will miss Michael Bradley. While I know he has been impressing with his work rate for a year or so now, I don't get to see the CONCACAF qualifiers out here in the UK much, but this tournament has convinced me -- he is our best midfielder. (Setting Landon aside, of course, but he is a different kettle of fish, more a second striker than a midfielder). I don't know who goes in for Bradley, but safe bet it isn't Beasley. The best he has this summer is his SPL champion medal (Rangers had to win eventually, and hopefully this will be their one title for a decade or so), but did he even qualify for that? I think Bradley goes with Feilharber or Kljestan.

I'm going out on a limb here. I predict a USA victory. Brazil have not been all that of late, and they had as many if not more qualifiers than the US had in the run in to this tournament. And to further my exploitation of cliches, the USA seem to be gelling at the precise right time.

The Text as Art Form...

I find this website hopelessly entertaining. There's probably something wrong with me. H/t Elise.

Murdering Journalists

This had slipped my mind, until I finally found it skulking in one of my Google Reader folders. Ralph Peters:

Although it seems unthinkable now, future wars may require censorship, news blackouts and, ultimately, military attacks on the partisan media. Perceiving themselves as superior beings, journalists have positioned themselves as protected-species combatants. But freedom of the press stops when its abuse kills our soldiers and strengthens our enemies.

As far as I can tell, Peters is calling for the murder of journalists he doesn't like. David Axe has an appropriate set of responses:
  • Journalists are not a protected species: attacks on reporters in war zones have increased in recent years
  • If our nation’s causes are just, the establishment has nothing to hide, from the public, the press or anyone
  • Reporting does not kill U.S. soldiers, but the absence of a coherent, public strategy does
  • Openness, including press freedom, is one of the very “globalizing” forces America and her allies fight for
  • “We” doesn’t means what it used to: today the U.S. almost never acts truly unilaterally, for we are part of a vast, complex and shifting international system, that requires transparency in order to function
  • Peters is an angry, ignorant and paranoid old man — and no one should listen to a word he says

The last point is worth dwelling on for a moment; in Accidental Guerrilla, David Kilcullen makes a point of calling Peters out for, essentially, being an angry, paranoid old man who doesn't know nearly as much about war as he'd like to believe. This made me deeply appreciative of David Kilcullen. Peters' position, however, does have a certain internal coherence. In makes sense in the context of the heroic vision that contemporary warbloggers/wingnuts create for themselves; they really seem to believe that they are key cogs in the American warfighting machine. As such, anyone who disputes their expertise and contribution is, by definition, objectively pro-terrorist.

"A Marker Should Make Up for That"

See Gary on eugenics in North Carolina.

Sunday Book Review: Second World

This is the fourth installment of a seven part series on the Patterson School's Summer Reading List.

  1. World of Nations, William Keylor
  2. The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier
  3. Hide and Seek, Charles Duelfer
  4. Second World, Parag Khanna
If you like Tom Friedman, but think that his concepts are too concrete, that he doesn't illustrate his points with enough random conversations with locals, that his conclusions aren't sufficiently sweeping, that he spends way too much time defining key terms, that he doesn't contradict himself enough, that he does too much research, that he could substitute stereotype for analysis a bit more often, that he doesn't have enough contempt for existing work in the field, and that he's insufficiently arrogant, then you'll absolutely frakking love Parag Khanna. Second World is almost certainly the worst book that I've ever read on international politics.

That is all.