The Point Being Exactly What, Again?

>> Tuesday, December 15, 2009

From Oregon, I've been reading with befuddlement the noises that Gordon Brown might call an early election. Maybe it's jet lag, but it seems to me that the time to have called an early election was July 2007. Rumor has it he's considering 25 March, which is only six weeks in advance of the assumed date (to correspond with local elections in early May) and not all that far in advance of the latest possible date for an election (5 June I believe).

It's obvious that one calls an early "snap" election when it disproportionately advantages your side. For Labour in early (as opposed to mid) 2010, I can only imagine three possible scenarios that would marginally advantage Labour (as opposed to disproportionately advantage). First, they assume that the current, vague trend towards Labour will continue, but hit a ceiling. Second, they assume that things are only going to get progressively worse, and calling an election sooner will at least maintain Labour as the official opposition. Third, they assume that the Tories are not prepared for an election. Or . . . fourth . . . they know that there will be thermonuclear bad news released between 25 March and 6 May. Considering the state of the British economy, the structural problems involved and concomitant threats of the credit agencies to downgrade the rating of the state debt, this scenario is not as far-fetched as it seems.

Of course, when David Cameron hails Simon Cowell and suggests that there is something that politicians can learn from this "incredibly talented" man, perhaps it isn't too soon to call a snap election.

UPDATE: It was the Tories spreading the rumor. This makes more sense.


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