La main de Dieu, for a New Generation

France 1 (1) - 1 (0) Ireland. AET.

France qualify for the 2010 World Cup.

I recall watching the 1986 World Cup on TV, which was a rarity at the time from the United States. I vaguely recall watching the Argentina v England quarter final match as well. However, not being an England fan, and only an 18 year old American at that, the infamous Hand of God goal by Maradona didn't resonate at the time as it did on the island where I now reside. Living six + years here, and being a soccer fan, I quickly learned just how fantastically lame that was. In my mind, the so-called "goal of the century" that Maradona scored a few minutes later didn't absolve him of that central sin. For all of his greatness as a player, his reputation is also blighted for being a cheat.

Thierry Henry's glorious career, likewise, took an unrecoverable turn last night:

(UPDATE: I originally included a clip from youtube, but Sportsfive, who own the rights to the broadcast from the match, have been busy scouring the intertubes for copyright infringements. Or something like that. Did I mention that they are French? Anyway, check out the comments for an active clip).

Granted, it's not a World Cup quarter final, but it was the final few minutes of qualification, and the match looked to be heading ineluctably towards penalties. It also was not the fifth round of the FA Cup in 1999, either.

I was in the pub for this match (technically only the second half). While Henry claims that he did not do it on purpose, I strongly disagree. The first hand ball was incidental -- still a foul, but not purposeful. The second hand ball he appears to direct the ball with intent. Before the replays, we knew something was up: virtually every Republic player had their hands raised, and Shay Given storms out to first the referee, then the linesman, to protest. The replays made the foul plain.

It's difficult to blame the referee for this; in the main he had a good match. The Anelka dive may have led to a penalty against Given, but that was a judgment call; the hand ball was not. The linesman should have spotted it, and either didn't, or didn't believe his eyes. But then he also failed to spot the clear offsides at the same time.

I'm not buying into any of the conspiracy theories -- while FIFA and UEFA have a clear preference for large nations to qualify, they sorted this out in the playoff draw. If there was a conspiracy involving the ref, he would have called that penalty against Given, not waited for a few minutes remaining in stoppage time to ignore a hand ball.

As my English club has always been Arsenal, even before the Wenger years, I should be inclined to give Henry the benefit of the doubt and wax eloquent about how any player would have done the same thing.

But I'm not. That hand ball was intentional, and should be called what it is: cheating. And Henry's legacy will forever be tied to this moment, which is a shame.

UPDATE: The Irish Justice Minister is calling for a replay. I heard rumblings about this on both BBC Radio 4 and 5 Live last night and this morning, which is why I cited the Sheffield United - Arsenal FA Cup Fifth Round tie in the above.

It's not going to happen. How would it? Any such match has to happen soon, but the next international window is months away, so the players would have to be coaxed from their clubs. While FIFA and UEFA can pry players from their clubs during international breaks, to the best of my knowledge they have no leverage outside of international windows. The current French squad play for such clubs as Chelsea, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal, Manchester United, Lyon . . . when these clubs say no, and they would within a second of receiving the request, the French players have no incentive to challenge the club position: they've already been handed their trip to South Africa (sorry for the dreadful pun, but about half the newspaper headlines today make the obvious easy play).

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Random Airport Blogging, Heathrow Edition (World Cup Qualifiers)

I'll be in the air during most if not all of the final round of qualifying for South Africa 2010, so I will miss a few mini dramas:

Uruguay v Argentina. This is perhaps the most interesting match on offer. With a win or a draw, Argentina avoid the ignominy of being dumped into the playoff against the 4th placed CONCACAF qualifier (against whom they would likely win). There was considerable debate a night or two ago on BBC 5 Live whether or not Maradona will get the sack even if they qualify (as well as whether or not David Beckham or Michael Owen deserve any consideration for making the 2010 squad for England). However, their opposition is Uruguay away, so there's a decent chance that Argentina lose. Worse, an Argentina loss combined with an Ecuador win away to already qualified Chile results in Argentina not even making the playoff spot -- unlikely, but possible.

Imagine a World Cup Finals without Argentina?

In CONCACAF, the only real issue left unresolved is who goes to the playoff against South America 5, and who automatically qualifies, as both the USA and Mexico qualified this past weekend. Costa Rica has a two point lead on Honduras, but face the stiffer challenge: Costa Rica play away to the USA at RFK, while Honduras play away to El Salvador, who have nothing to play for. 1st in the group is still open between the USA and Mexico with the US holding a slender one point lead. While both teams are level on goal differential, that will not come into play: the only way they end up level on points is if the US loses and Mexico draws; such a result would give Mexico a superior g/d.

I predict a US and victory over Costa Rica, and Honduras a slight edge to gain all three points out of El Salvador. While their combined g/d give Honduras a +10 advantage over El Salvador, when they played in Honduras earlier in qualifying it was only a 1-0 victory to the latter.

Assuming the US wins the group this year, don't necessarily expect a seed in the World Cup itself.

Prost Amerika has a run down of those teams that qualified this past weekend.

There's not much left to settle in UEFA. 2nd in Group 1 could go to Portugal, Sweden, or Hungary (and I would personally embrace a reality where Christiano Ronaldo is not in the World Cup Finals.)

Groups 2 and 3 are relatively wide open, with neither the automatic qualifier nor second place determined; surprises include Switzerland the likely winner of Group 2, the Czech Republic finishing second at best (and that's no sure thing), Northern Ireland being mathematically (if not probabalistically) alive on the final match of qualifying, and Poland tanking. For those interested, and I know a couple people who very much are, the chances of Fox News admitting their sins by owning up to the salacious affair with the wingnut branch of the Republican Party, and as a mea culpa get fully behind 'cap and trade' as well as criticising Obama for not pushing for the Public Option are higher than Northern Ireland finishing second. NI would need to win away to the Czech Republic, while Slovenia would have to freeze on the big stage of playing away to San Marino and lose big to the mountaintop that could. This would only result in a points draw; the existing g/d advantage to Slovenia is +7 compared to NI.

But hell, it's possible, right? After all, San Marino have scored a goal during this qualifying campaign, while conceding only 44.

Groups 4 and 5 are settled (Germany and Spain qualify, Russia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (!) finish second). The only real news in these groups is Turkey's inability to finish even second.

Group 6, the group that England dominated until they won it, is down to Croatia or Ukraine for second. Groups 7, 8 and 9 are done (qualifying are Serbia, Italy, Netherlands; second are France, Ireland, and Norway). Shocking for France that they finished second to Serbia, and there is an outside chance that Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina would all qualify for the World Cup finals. That would be sort of cool, in a USA v Iran 1998 sort of way (or a South Korea v North Korea 2010 sort of way, both of whom have qualified).

It's a safe bet that the one of nine second place teams to miss the cut for the second place playoffs is Norway.

As for LHR, there's a reason I avoid this airport. I had to catch an 0330 bus from Plymouth to get here with any time to make my flight (and in this case far more time than I needed), and the bus drops one off at the Heathrow Central Bus Station. This is very convenient to Terminals 1, 2, and 3, but if you're unfortunate to find yourself departing from T4 or T5, there's a combination of long walk and tube journey (technically the Heathrow Express, and that is free) to get to your destination. Total time invested to get from the Heathrow bus station to Heathrow T4 was slightly over twice as long as it takes to fly from Plymouth Airport to Bristol Airport. Since T5 opened, T4 has turned into something of a ghost town as well, but the line for check-in was short (I suppose that has something to do with checking in about four hours in advance of take off?) and security was, surprisingly, a breeze.

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A Civil and Respectful World Cup Qualifier Roundup

unlike LGM's new favorite South Carolina Republican.

Trinidad & Tobago 0 - 1 USA

Note: I will standardize the home / away nomenclature to the European norm of home team first. I know this is socialist, it makes me appear unpatriotic, a hater of America, and, worse, a Democrat. I'll cope somehow, but I expect my daughter will be routinely beat up in school.

Except she will attend a British school . . .

This match was closer than it should have been, but in general with the USMNT and this stage of CONCACAF qualifying, this can be said about most matches. I like that Ricardo Clark, he of the red card in the 1-3 defeat against Italy this past summer fame, scored what was by all accounts a cracking goal. Donovan with the assist, added to his two assists against El Salvador . . . when is he going to return to Europe?

Donovan appeared to enjoy his loan spell with Bayern Munich last winter, unlike his previous two forays in the Bundesliga. A good friend of mine back in Plymouth, a German Bayern supporter, was thrilled to have him and thought his was a class addition. Allegedly, the sticking point for a permanent deal was the transfer fee expected by the Galaxy and the MLS. Donovan had a great Confederations Cup this past summer, and his form in WC quals has been equally excellent. For the sake of his career and the US MNT, it's time Donovan returns to one of the top 5 European leagues, and allow David Beckham to assume the mantle of the "best player on the LA Galaxy".

You can find additional succinct analysis of the T&T match here.

The current CONCACAF table, with two matches remaining, has the US on top, a point ahead of Mexico. The US are close to qualification now: a win against Honduras will do it, a Costa Rica defeat will do it, or draws by each in the next round will do it. Yes Mexico are resurgent, which isn't too surprising really. Their defeat of Honduras 1-0 was critical. Apparently dumping SGE has made the difference.

Briefly, in South America things are interesting. With two matches to go, Argentina do occupy the 5th place spot, which I hinted at as a distinct possibility in my previous soccer post. In the unlikely event that they do miss out on South Africa, it would be the first time since 1970 they have missed a finals . . . but that master of the hand of god tactician Maradona vows to fight on. With Peru, already eliminated, and Uraguay their remaining matches, they should qualify at least for the playoff against the 4th team from CONCACAF.

Qualification in Europe is drawing to a close as well. There aren't many surprises at this stage, save for England's absolutely dominant qualification performance. This is a side that perennially disappoints (which is partially a function of the unrealistically high expectations the English and the English media set for the national side) and couldn't even qualify for the Europeans in 2008 (I watched that final match against Croatia in one of my locals . . . and the second I saw the McClaren umbrella pose reckoned he was done.) I'm not an England supporter (nor am I a detractor), but follow the side out of necessity, and this qualification run has been sublime. They haven't dropped a point in eight matches, qualifying perfect with two matches to go (against sides who have both been eliminated). What is remarkable is the manner in which England simply destroyed Croatia in their two meetings during this qualification round: it was Croatia who ended their Europe 2008 campaign. 5-1 on Wednesday, as well as wining 4-1 away to Croatia last September (the sublime Theo Walcott hat-trick match) . . . these are scorelines that the English aren't all that used to. Even against Andorra. Credit has to be given to Fabio Capello. They core of the team isn't all that different from the debacle of the 2008 campaign -- the management is. As I am due to return to that island early next week, I anticipate a wet, yet strangely optimistic, English people upon my return.

This creates an aside I would like to explore some day. We know from sabermetrics that managers in baseball have, at best, the slightest of marginal influence on the outcomes -- at least that we have been able to observe and measure. In soccer, it seems to me that the manager can make a significant difference. I'm open to suggestions as to how to go about measuring and testing this theory.

Group 1 in Europe will see one of Denmark, Sweden, or Portugal not qualify. Given the remaining schedules, I see Portugal making it through to at least the second place playoff, and it will come down to the match between Denmark and Sweden. Tough group, this one.

Group 3 is a real surprise: it looks as though neither of the favorites (Czech Republic or Poland) will qualify. Both were present at Germany 2006. Leo Beehakker gets the sack by Poland (it's good that they didn't qualify, because I bristle as the British policy of consistently mispronouncing his name) and yet Northern Ireland, whom I do support as part of my small "if not the USA"collection of national sides, have not yet been mathematically eliminated, but it would take a miracle. If they beat the Czechs away, while Slovenia drop five points against Slovakia and the mighty San Marino . . . hey, it's away to San Marino. Er, when was the last time San Marino picked up a single point in the qualification for anything? Holy crap, it has happened. A draw at home to Turkey in 1993? The little mountaintop that could . . . should the likely happen, Northern Ireland not qualify, and Worthington get the sack, can I be cheeky enough to propose Neil Lennon as his replacement?

Group 5 have Bosnia & Herzegovina possibly edging out both Turkey and Belgium for the second place playoff spot (the latter are already eliminated). France find themselves second to Serbia in Group 7, the Republic of Ireland may finish second in Group 8.

Finally, neither Scotland nor Wales qualified. The latter isn't surprising. Nor is the former, unless you're Scottish. Like England, I don't really support Scotland. However, as I support a Scottish club, the vast, vast majority of the members of the Celtic Supporters Club Plymouth are oddly Scottish, hence I've watched a few matches with the lads down the pub, and it's another case of I can't help but follow them through association. A 0-1 home defeat to Holland eliminated Scotland, and has likely cost George Burley his job. Why, I'm not sure; I've liked him since his remarkable half-season with Hearts in 2005-06 where it looked like Hearts would split the Old Firm in the SPL (if not finish 1st), and more realistically, who is available to replace him?

Oh, I know. Berti Vogts could be pried away from Azerbaijan to have a second go at managing Scotland.

UPDATE: find a more thorough analysis of the state of UEFA qualification over here.

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